When people ask me about investment and opportunities I often talk about specific skill sets, barriers of entry, and asymmetry of knowledge.

The idea is that too often the stock market is rigged against you, due to being on the wrong side of knowledge asymmetries. And that’s why you should always invest in what you know, and make it as long term as possible. (IMO if you’re doing more than 5 trades in a year, you are not doing a good job.)

Likewise, any business with low barriers to entry will be one where you’ll work hard for tiny margins, unless you have some sort of advantage over your competition.

Late 2021 I sold a portion of my crypto currency because, at a party with some good friends, two of his friends were waaaaaaayy too excited about some shit coins. I try to follow Warren Buffet’s advice to “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”. It has served me well.

Today I’m starting to consider going back into crypto. Because Forbes, a highly reputed magazine, has published an article that is dumb to the point where it seems like satire. It’s hard to describe how uninformed this piece is and how dumb the author has to be. (Mental Note: never take investment advice from Billy Bambrough or Peter Zeihan. They can spew gibberish in a highly confident way.)

When Forbes publishes an article that actually makes you dumber as you read it, that probably means the asymmetry is starting to be on my side. I’m ready to say we’re near an investment bottom. To be clear: I’m not saying that crypto won’t fall further. I’m saying that the largest crypto currencies will outperform most investment classes in the next 12 months.